Can Ricciardo beat Mercedes to pole?

Since it became clear exactly how dominant Mercedes is in 2014, the Monaco Grand Prix weekend has been marked with a big asterisk in the calendar by the chasing pack.

Thursday practice on the streets of the Principality suggests that Red Bull potentially has the pace to push the Silver Arrows harder than in the first five races of the season, with Daniel Ricciardo again the most convincing of its drivers.

With the afternoon's wet conditions - which only allowed drivers to set times on slick rubber in the final 10 minutes - rendering any tentative long-run data even more irrelevant than it would be even once the near-impossibility of overtaking is factored in, a clear picture did not emerge.

How close to the pace is Red Bull?

What we can be sure of is that, despite Fernando Alonso topping the afternoon session, the one-two for Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg from the morning shows that the Mercedes is the car to beat.

While the Ferrari was second quickest, this is based on Thursday afternoon times, a session in which neither Red Bull driver set a quicker time than they had in the morning. All things being equal, the Red Bull is reckoned to be the second fastest car, as it was in the morning.

Raw pace by team (combined sessions)

 1. Mercedes     1m18.271s
 2. Ferrari      1m18.482s
 3. Red Bull     1m18.506s
 4. Toro Rosso   1m19.351s
 5. Williams     1m19.421s
 6. Force India  1m19.666s
 7. McLaren      1m19.721s
 8. Sauber       1m20.188s
 9. Lotus        1m20.207s
10. Marussia     1m21.310s
11. Caterham     1m21.924s

As has often been the case this season, Ricciardo has looked the most convincing of the two Red Bull aces. From the start of FP1, the Australian has been silky smooth and in control of the car, while Sebastian Vettel has been quick, but still not completely convincing.

GARY ANDERSON: "I spent the majority of both sessions watching trackside. After spending a bit of time in FP1 in the pits, I then watched at the exit of the Swimming Pool.

Hamilton was still quickest overall © XPB

"The Red Bull does look pretty good. Vettel was making some mistakes and struggling for rear grip, suggesting he's still not completely comfortable with the car, while Ricciardo was much happier.

"In the morning he was certainly in the ballpark on pace, 0.235 seconds slower than Hamilton, and if you assume all other factors are equal that puts him within striking distance.

"In the second session it was a lottery in terms of the final times, although Vettel did look a lot happier.

"The most noticeable thing is that Mercedes has more work to do here than it has in previous races. So far this year, the night after the first day of practice has been about dotting the i's and crossing the t's. Here, gains need to be made. But still it's the quickest car."

What does Ricciardo need to do for pole?

Assuming that the times we saw on Thursday are representative, with Ricciardo almost two and a half tenths slower on raw pace - a dangerous assumption, admittedly - what will it take for him to get pole position?

The short answer is: a perfect lap. Monaco is a circuit where the boldness of a driver can gain him a few tenths of a second that the meeker pilots will leave on the table. But the walls are unforgiving, so it will rely on his virtuosity behind the wheel and ability to tread the fine line between speed and catastrophe.

The question is, how strong is Ricciardo around Monaco? His record here is unremarkable in F1.

In 2012 he was 16th fastest in qualifying and retired from the race with steering damage after clouting a kerb. The following year he was 16th again on the grid, and retired from outside the points when he was torpedoed by Romain Grosjean.

So far, so unexciting. But he twice won from pole position in Formula Renault 3.5 - in 2010 and '11. For those willing to look beyond F1, he does have a genuine Monaco pedigree. He knows how to take pole around here.

GARY ANDERSON: "Ricciardo would need a fair wind to get pole position, but it is possible. From what I saw from Lewis Hamilton's car, it had phenomenal turn-in on fresh rubber, whereas usually a car will struggle with understeer. So the Mercedes remains exceptional.

"But if Ricciardo only needs a swing of a few tenths in his favour, it can be done. What it will require is a superb lap from Ricciardo and perhaps a slight underperformance from the Mercedes drivers. Around here, that is possible. Don't underestimate just how easy it is to lose time.

"But you can't underestimate Hamilton and Nico Rosberg. Both have won this race in the past and Hamilton will be determined to get his first Monaco pole position. They are both masters of Monaco.

Ricciardo needs a perfect lap for pole © LAT

"Ricciardo is in his first year in a car capable of shooting for a top result and will want to take the chance to fight for a win if he can. But he will want to lift his game to do it and that can bite you.

"A good result is on the cards whatever happens and, while a banzai lap could put him on pole position, the risk of hitting something is higher. It's risk versus reward and only he knows how comfortable he really is.

"It's important not to count out Vettel either. He improved in second practice and has won here, so it's not out of the question he could also be in the hunt."

So if Ricciardo gets pole, what then?

If we put Ricciardo at the front of a hypothetical grid, his path to victory should be simple, as it has been for the driver up front in Monaco every year from 2009 onwards.

If he can hold the lead at the start, given that a one-stop strategy appears to be the order of the day - with the super-soft looking pretty durable - that's most of the battle won. Then it's a question of being able to make his pitstop without losing the lead.

This was the pattern of the Monaco GP in 2012 and '13 and should be the same this year. Given that the Mercedes is slightly faster, even if Ricciardo stays ahead he will have to be wary of being jumped. But provided the timing of the pitstop is correct, he should retain the box seat.

On paper, all of that sounds very simple. But, of course, it really isn't.

The reality is that Ricciardo will have to drive the qualifying lap of his life to be able to pull this off.

But this is a driver who made his name in F1 with some stunning Saturday performances. It's a tough challenge, but it's certainly a possibility.