Analysis: Indy 500 is wide open

Scott Dixon also could say the same thing, but he cautions about the possibility of mistakes in the pits. The driver with the fewest number of gaffes in the pits, he says, will be the race winner.

Tony Kanaan says the winner will be the one who has speed and momentum at the end and finds the proper positioning just before the final lap. Sam Hornish Jr says it's all about avoiding trouble and maintaining a suitable pace.

If you're Dan Wheldon or a weather forecaster, you'll say the guy who plays rabbit and jumps to the early lead will be best positioned to steal a rain-shortened race. And rain - as has been common in recent years - appears to be a major player in the Indy 500 once again.

Forecasts are calling for a 70 per cent chance of rain on Sunday in Indianapolis, similar to the start-and-stop rainfall that teased Indianapolis Motor Speedway on Saturday.

The race needs to go 101 laps to be official, so if rain is threatening, look for drastic changes in strategy as the race approaches the halfway point.

That drama will be compounded by the new 22-gallon fuel cell in use this season in the IndyCar Series - eight gallons less than recent years, and 13 gallons less than the cell used in 2003.

That's expected to add another two pitstops for each competitor. The battle to get to the front if rain becomes a threat could make pitstops even more critical than previously thought.

"That's a big difference," Dixon said. "The tyre wear is much better, so you probably won't see guys using up their tyres before they run out of fuel. Last year's tyres were crap, but this year they're pretty good.

"When you first get here at the beginning of the month, you burn up your first set of tyres in 12 laps. But now we're getting 25 laps out of a set, so that matches up with the fuel pretty well.

"I do think you're going to see a lot of mistakes in the pits, and those mistakes are going to play a role in who wins. It used to be eight or so pits during the race, but now it's going to be 10. Somebody is going to lose because of a bad pitstop."

Another prediction that seems logical is the one about the race's three super-teams. It's highly likely that the race winner will come from either Team Penske, Andretti Green Racing or Target Chip Ganassi Racing.

In fact, the chances that a winner comes from outside that group of nine racers - and Ryan Briscoe in the Penske spin-off Luczo Dragon team - are considered slim.

"I think it's the best shot for any of the Andretti Green drivers because of the development we did over the winter and because all five of us are driving well and they're giving us good cars," Franchitti said.

"Experience always helps. You've got some very experienced drivers here, but you saw what Marco (Andretti) did in his first year here (when he finished second last year). We're all in a good position, but by no means is it going to be easy."

The rain that fell on Friday and Saturday won't make the start of the race any easier. Most of the rubber that had accumulated on the track during the previous three weeks, during which practice was only interrupted once because of rain, has been washed away.

"Rain won't affect our set-up, because it's such a long race," Tomas Scheckter said. "But it might affect the first stint, because the track will be green and the tyres may run out sooner until some rubber gets built up.

"We can't change our set-up for how the race track will be during the first stint. After that, the track will get some rubber down and everything will be fine."

So who are the drivers picking to win? Namely, the ones who have showed speed all month, including pole winner Helio Castroneves, Tony Kanaan, Franchitti, Wheldon, Dixon and Hornish.

An incomplete poll of drivers and team officials indicated Kanaan is the trackside favourite. But Dan Wheldon is the 5-2 favorite on the board in Vegas, with Target Chip Ganassi teammate Dixon second best, at 3-1.

However, Dixon finds Kanaan - at 4-1 - a good buy at those odds.

"I'd have to say Kanaan is the favourite," Dixon said. "He showed good speed all month, and it just seems like it's his time."

But, as always with the Indy 500, the only predictable truth is that it's utterly unpredictable.

"I know how fickle this place can be," Franchitti said. "The slightest problem can take you out of contention."

Or put another guy in Victory Circle.