Why McLaren is right to warn against Verstappen's F1 2025 title chances

When McLaren team principal Andrea Stella emphatically called Max Verstappen a title contender after qualifying for the Formula 1 Azerbaijan Grand Prix, his comments raised a few eyebrows.

"A firm yes. Can you write it capital [letters]? First of all, he's Max Verstappen -world champion for the last four years. In a fast car.

"There are races where McLaren may not enjoy any advantage from a competitiveness point of view. And Lando [Norris] and Oscar [Piastri] may take some points away from each other."

At that point Verstappen was trailing Piastri by 94 points. But after a calamitous weekend for the Australian, that has now shifted to 69 with 199 left available. Still a long shot, but Stella's comments carry a bit more weight now.

On the surface McLaren shouldn't be too worried. The speed of its car hasn't suddenly vanished, but it has encountered two circuits in Monza and Baku that didn't play to the car's strengths. Las Vegas will be another one, but elsewhere McLaren will be in the mix.

At the same time, the jury is still out on just how real Red Bull's "rebirth", as Helmut Marko called it, really is. Monza and Baku did suit the RB21, and the next round in Singapore will be its biggest test yet.

"If you had asked me what is the most difficult weekend, I would have said it could be Baku or Vegas," Stella explained.

"We know very well that our car is very competitive in long, medium-speed corners, of which we have none here in Baku, likewise in Vegas. The car is not particularly effective in straight-line braking, of which you have a lot here."

Next week's Singapore GP is expected to be a return to form for McLaren, which dominated the 2024 race with Lando Norris.

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

Coupled with the aero characteristics of the MCL39 is the fact that the McLaren has been the kindest car on its rear tyres, which is a virtue accentuated by hot conditions. That should put it in good stead on more demanding circuits in hot climates. Singapore is one, as is Qatar.

"If there is high degradation, we may be more competitive. With low degradation, like we have seen in Monza, then not necessarily we have the best race car," Stella added, while cautioning that Red Bull's upturn in form isn't just track specific.

"We have already seen in Monza that they improved, because the way they won Monza was something more, in our assessment, than simply a car that adapts well at low drag. They were fast in the corners, medium speed and low speed corners, fast in the straights, and we know that Max, when he has a competitive car, can deliver strong weekends.

"We will see now in Singapore, which should be more of one in which we should perform well. Hopefully we can go back to fighting for victories, and then we will see how the rest of the championship will unfold. But definitely Max is in contention. We knew it, and we got confirmation."

Rallying the troops to avoid complacency?

But if there is no reason to panic after one off-kilter grand prix for McLaren, and a rare error-strewn weekend for the otherwise metronomic Piastri, then why is Stella so adamant Verstappen is such a big threat?

Is he already looking for excuses in case his drivers can't pull it off? That's one theory, but it seems unlikely. Not only is it not his style - like every team boss Stella protects his drivers, but not in disingenuous fashion - but there's still plenty of confidence Piastri or Norris can and will pull it off, with Verstappen still very much an outsider as it stands.

The Italian's comments can also be seen as a way to pre-empt and avoid any complacency that may be seeping in. With McLaren needing just 13 points in Singapore to retain a dominant constructors' title, it may be tempting to ease off the pressure just that tiny bit.

But after retirements for both drivers in recent races, and a particularly messy weekend in Baku with a reliability issue for Piastri in practice and another iffy pitstop on Norris' side, it has become clear that a resurgent Verstappen - Red Bull combo is now in a position to put enough pressure so neither Piastri nor Norris can afford too many more slipups, never mind a combined score of six points over a weekend.

Oscar Piastri, McLaren, Andrea Stella, McLaren

Photo by: Peter Fox / Getty Images

Through his comments in the media Stella has also indirectly rallied the troops both at the track and at home in Woking. A first papaya drivers' title since 2008 is not a foregone just yet, so the squad cannot let its foot off the throttle. Obviously, it also has a responsibility towards both its drivers to allow them to defend their chances to the best of their ability, with Norris now trailing Piastri by 25 points.

"When you race at the top of Formula 1 the competition is so tight, simply you cannot afford errors because there will be your contenders that are ready to take advantage," he warned.

"Considering the drivers' championship, certainly the margin for error reduce further, but this is always the ethos when you race in Formula 1. Hopefully some of the inaccuracies and issues have accumulated in this weekend, because not only did we not have a fast enough car, but we also had some reliability issues that cost Oscar some time during practice. Therefore, there's quite a lot to take away for the drivers, but also for the team."

The best way to respond is with an emphatic and clean performance in Singapore, one of the team's favoured circuits, where Norris beat Verstappen last year by 21 seconds.

To wrap up its second consecutive constructors' title, but also to stabilise the drivers' championship situation and to weed out the Verstappen comeback narrative that is starting to sprout.