What has happened to McLaren's 2025 F1 advantage?

McLaren only needs to score 13 points in Singapore to wrap up its second consecutive constructors' crown with five rounds to spare, but if you were looking for any lingering signs of that early season dominance you wouldn't have been able to spot it over the last few weekends.

Championship leader Oscar Piastri and team-mate Lando Norris were well beaten by reigning world champion Max Verstappen in Monza, and the pair only took six points in a messy Baku weekend, capped off by a crash for Piastri on lap one.

But it's not just a resurgent Red Bull that is now more than just nipping at McLaren's heels. Mercedes' George Russell took an emphatic pole in Singapore ahead of Verstappen and Piastri, with team-mate Andrea Kimi Antonelli keeping Norris off the second row.

On average the two papaya clad cars shipped around four tenths to Russell and two tenths to Verstappen. This is the same circuit on which Norris and McLaren defeated Verstappen last year by 21 seconds, which begs the question whether McLaren's third consecutive weekend off the front is still track specific or the start of a worrying trend.

A bit of both, is team principal Andrea Stella's verdict: "We seem to observe a pattern. When we have braking with bumps and with kerbs, in Canada we were not the best car. In Baku we were not the best car. And in Singapore we are not the best car.

"This is not an entire surprise because we know in which conditions we develop our car. In general we gain time mid-corner, but every mid-corner [on these circuits] is kind of too short.

"Here it's dominated by braking and traction, and with bumps and kerbs we just seem to be suffering a bit. So throughout the event we saw that Mercedes were in condition to put together some very competitive sectors. Max, the same. And our drivers were making comments which resembled the comments of Baku and Canada. So it's a regime in which simply we are not the most competitive."

Lando Norris, McLaren

Photo by: Steven Tee / LAT Images via Getty Images

McLaren's prowess at keeping its tyres alive in hot conditions is not as decisive on a circuit without high-speed cornering. Meanwhile, Norris' complaints over a lack of bite from the front axle, which plagued him over the first half of 2025, seem to have returned. Stella suspects McLaren hasn't adapted as well to Pirelli's 2025 rubber for this type of stop-start circuits.

"We keep having comments which do highlight that the change of tyres from last year to this year somehow plays a little bit of a factor," he explained. "Last year, our drivers were much more comfortable driving around Singapore and this year, they made comments about the behaviour of the front tyres, definitely on the soft tyres."

But McLaren's flattening performance curve isn't just down to the type of circuits F1 has visited recently. Stella is convinced the Woking-based squad has also been caught on outright performance after switching off its development early. Mercedes has largely done so too but its form has been harder to predict and it brought a tweaked front wing to Singapore, while Red Bull has continued finding extra bits of performance from its floor and front wing.

"There's a trend whereby we have stopped the development of the car now for quite some time because we've been focusing entirely on 2026," he said. "There were little parts that we took to Monza but otherwise we were just focusing on 2026 for a long time, while we have seen that some competitors kept taking trackside some new upgrades. Red Bull certainly is one of those.

"And then we need to identify the pattern of braking with bumps and kerbs, and the other one with the low downforce like we saw in Monza and Baku. So, there's a few factors compounding."

So when - if it all - can McLaren return to the front again this year? Stella has identified several circuits that should suit its 2025 MCL39 much better.

Andrea Stella, McLaren

Photo by: Sam Bloxham / LAT Images via Getty Images

"I would expect that Austin will still be a bit of a struggle for us because the corners are tight in many braking areas. Our tracks still remain the likes of Brazil, Qatar, Abu Dhabi," he pointed out.

"Perhaps earlier on in the season, when we had a bit more advantage, we could cope better with some other circuits. But now the field has become even more competitive. Red Bull seems to have solved both its high drag and Singapore factors, but they are extremely capable. It's no surprise they are in the game.

"You have to accept the fight. And that's what we are doing."