Schuey is stats' favourite

Michael Schumacher will win a seventh Formula 1 World Championship in 2004, according to statistics experts at Melbourne's Swinburne University

Nov 24, 2003, 1:12 PM

A team led by Jonathan Lowe, in collaboration with Professor Stephen Clarke, have run numerous computer simulations on the outcome of the championship and the season-opening Melbourne Grand Prix. Schumacher is seen as a 36.1 percent chance of a seventh title, with Williams' Juan Pablo Montoya next up on 21.7 percent. Ralf Schumacher (fifth in '03) wound up third with 20.5 percent, ahead of Kimi Raikkonen (runner-up in '03) 12.6 percent, Rubens Barrichello 7.9 percent and David Coulthard at only 0.6 percent.

The Melbourne race has been simulated 20,000 times on computer, representing 1.16 million laps and more than 6.15 million kilometres around the Albert Park circuit. Schumacher is given a 19.5 percent chance of winning the race, ahead of Montoya who is rated at 16 percent.

Despite these predictions, Schuey was rated at over 40 per cent for victory in last year's race, which was won by David Coulthard. The Scot was only the fourth favourite ahead of the event...