Hadjar closes in on Red Bull F1 seat – what options remain for Tsunoda?

Even in 2025, the seat next to Max Verstappen remains a headache for Red Bull. After the Formula 1 Chinese Grand Prix, the team decided to swap Liam Lawson for Yuki Tsunoda, but that has not proven to be the solution yet. Since his promotion, the Japanese driver has only scored nine points and sits 19th in the championship standings, with only Franco Colapinto and Jack Doohan behind him.

At the same time, Isack Hadjar is impressing the Red Bull bosses as a rookie. It is no coincidence that Helmut Marko, after Hadjar’s first F1 podium finish, said Hadjar can withstand the pressure of the seat alongside Verstappen: “Isack is different,” said the 82-year-old Austrian. Those words reflect how Red Bull views Hadjar and also the direction in which the driver choice for 2026 is currently heading.

However, Marko has repeatedly stressed that there is no rush for a final decision or formal announcement, since all drivers are under Red Bull contracts. This includes the sister team’s drivers, which means there is flexibility to move them around at any time.

Ahead of the Azerbaijan GP, German publication Auto, Motor und Sport reported that Hadjar will be Verstappen’s team-mate next year, a suggestion the French driver didn’t deny during media day in Baku. “I have an idea, but I don’t know [for sure].” When asked about his reaction to the media reports, he said: “I had like five days off at home, I had other things to do than scrolling on Instagram.”

Hadjar on pole, how crucial are the next three races for Tsunoda?

Information obtained by Autosport indicates that Hadjar, as it stands, is indeed in pole position for promotion to Red Bull in 2026. Formally, however, the team is sticking to the timeline mentioned by Marko. Red Bull’s motorsport advisor cited the Mexican Grand Prix at the end of October as a reference point. It means Red Bull will wait for the next three race weekends before making a definitive decision.

Unless something extraordinary happens to change the current outlook, Hadjar will be promoted to the main team for 2026 – which means Tsunoda would need exceptional results to keep the Red Bull seat, something that looks unlikely at this stage.

Yuki Tsunoda, Red Bull Racing

Photo by: Steven Tee / LAT Images via Getty Images

The next three weekends are therefore important for Tsunoda, requiring something unusual to turn the tide. “I'm not really thinking much about the future yet to be honest. But every race is crucial at this moment, that is true,” Tsunoda said in Baku. “I just need to keep delivering the results and showing progress every race, and then let them decide what they want to do. I like [the idea of] myself fighting against the people and trying to make it work.”

Return to Racing Bulls an option for Tsunoda?

If Tsunoda cannot achieve the unexpected, a return to Racing Bulls is one of the options. Tsunoda himself did not rule out that scenario during the media day in Azerbaijan: “I'm not sure what's going to happen at Racing Bulls next year. The only thing I'm thinking about now is staying at Red Bull for next year, so I'm not really thinking much about the situation if I'm going back to Racing Bulls or whatever. I'll think about that when that thing happens. It's a team that I was staying with for a lot of years, and I know the people, but at the same time I moved on already to a new chapter.”

Tsunoda rejects the idea that his current Red Bull stint has been just a struggle: “So far, it probably looks like a difficult moment, but actually it's given me a lot of progress as a human and as a driver.”

If Tsunoda cannot turn things around with standout performances in the upcoming three race weekends, there are few options left for 2026 besides Racing Bulls. The second Alpine seat is still vacant, but that seems like a long shot. A reserve role at Aston Martin – which will become Honda’s engine partner – looks more plausible in that scenario, although Tsunoda’s first priority remains to stay at the Red Bull family and secure a spot on the grid there, even if that means at the sister team.

A key factor in this is Honda’s support. The Japanese manufacturer is leaving Red Bull after this season, though it could continue as Tsunoda’s personal sponsor. This would increase Tsunoda’s chances of a Racing Bulls seat and keep him in F1, which has benefits for Honda as well, in case an opportunity at a Honda-powered team (Aston Martin) might come up later on in his career.

2026 a good moment for Hadjar to make the move?

Hadjar, for his part, has already stated that he doesn’t want to be promoted during this season, although Red Bull isn’t planning another driver change either. The Frenchman sees the introduction of the new regulations in 2026 as the perfect moment to step up, believing the problems of Red Bull’s second seat will disappear. In Hadjar’s view, the philosophy of the car will be less tailored to one driver, although Tsunoda gave nuance to that during the media day in Baku: “I wouldn't say this car is built for Max. He just drove this car for a long time, and he's an incredible driver. Secondly, he knows what he can deliver from each set-up, which is good as well.”

Isack Hadjar, Racing Bulls, Helmut Marko, Red Bull Racing, Zak Brown, McLaren

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Formula 1 via Getty Images

For Hadjar, that will remain a challenge next year if he is promoted, though he is confident he can succeed.

“2026 is a different question because it's a brand-new start for the team. There won't be this talk of the second car thing. This wouldn't be a thing, because it's a brand-new car for everyone.” Asked at Monza whether that makes promotion to Red Bull easier, he replied: “Way easier.”