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Brazilian Grand Prix: This is what the stats say will happen in F1 this weekend

Brazil is one of F1’s most legendary locations and the Sao Paulo track is popular with drivers. We delve into some of the big facts and stats ahead of this weekend’s event.

National flags in the infield

National flags in the infield

Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

The anticlockwise Interlagos circuit has provided some spectacular races in the past and all F1 fans will be hoping for another drama-filled event this weekend, with two slices of action in the Sprint on Saturday and the main race on Sunday.

This will be the 41st F1 event at the track – which replaced Rio de Janeiro as the venue for the Brazilian Grand Prix in 1990 – but it is only the third one that is named the Sao Paulo – rather than the Brazilian Grand Prix. Here are some of its top stats ahead of this weekend.

Title no-contest

The venue has hosted six drivers’ title deciders – in 2005, 2006, 2007, 2008, 2009 and 2012 – but it is already three races since Max Verstappen sealed his third title. However, a Lewis Hamilton win and four points or less for Sergio Perez would see a switch for second. Hamilton is now 9/1 for the runner-up spot, while Perez is a 4/7 favourite.

Pole and win record

Hamilton is chasing what would be an outright record fourth pole at odds of 8/1 – although Verstappen is more fancied at 4/9 and the Ferraris are 11/2. If he can deliver, the Mercedes driver could turn it into a win to match Michael Schumacher’s record of four victories at the circuit.

Tight margins

The margins are tight at this track in qualifying, with pole coming down to less than a tenth of a second in nine of the last 12 races. Last year, Kevin Magnussen pipped Verstappen by 0.101s in a wet session, although that was annulled when he dropped down in the Sprint – and the odds of that happening again this year are 500/1.

Back-to-back wins

Verstappen, Hamilton and George Russell are the only three current drivers to have won at Interlagos, the latter taking his maiden F1 win at the track last year. There have been only five back-to-back winners in Sao Paulo, though, and the odds of Russell being one are 18/1, with a podium finish for the Mercedes driver at 2/1.

Back to front

The track has some good overtaking opportunities and with rain predicted for qualifying some drivers may have to chase through the field – Carlos Sainz did so when he went from last to third in 2020, while Hamilton won from 10th on the grid in 2021. The odds of the race having two leaders is 2/1.

Carlos Sainz, Ferrari SF-23, Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes F1 W14

Photo by: Mark Sutton / Motorsport Images

Carlos Sainz, Ferrari SF-23, Lewis Hamilton, Mercedes F1 W14

Pole to flag

Despite a past history of exciting races, 13 of the last 14 races have been won from the front row. Prior to Hamilton’s win from 10th in 2021, the last person to win from outside the top two spots was Kimi Raikkonen for Ferrari in 2007. Odds of a hat trick – pole to victory plus a fastest lap – are 8/5 for Verstappen, 200/1 for Hamilton, 600/1 for Norris, 750/1 for Russell and 1000/1 for everyone else.

Team attack

Ferrari are just ahead of McLaren when it comes to team victories, while Mercedes engines have won more races than any other. The odds of two Mercedes on the podium are 7/2 while the combination of the latter two – McLaren-Mercedes – could give Lando Norris or Oscar Piastri a good chance this weekend, with Norris at 15/8 for a top two finish.

Podium potential

There have been 11 different podium finishers this season, with Verstappen highest on 18 and Perez second on eight. Fernando Alonso is next up with seven, and he has finished on the podium in Brazil more than any other current driver, with eight top-three finishes.

Podium potential II

Hamilton and Norris are both on six podiums and Norris is on a roll, with four top-three finishes in the last five compared to Hamilton’s two. However, Hamilton has form in Brazil, with six podiums from the last eight races at the track. Odds of a British winner are 7/1.

Keep track of the action

To keep track of the action, wherever you are, the F1 Live Tracker from bet365 is a good place to go – covering all the information you could possibly need, from all the practice sessions, through qualifying, sprints and the race itself.

It allows users to track each driver’s position from the starting grid to the finish, live throughout the race, with current leaderboard information, the latest fastest lap, current lap times, number of pitstops by driver, current tyre settings and driver gaps.

To make it simple to catch up, a timeline details all the important race updates – including all the key overtakes and incidents – and it also allows two drivers to be compared head-to-head within the race, highlighting them on the tracker.

On top of that, all the safety car updates, red flags and yellow flags are covered, while track information such as temperatures, humidity and chance of rain makes it possible to keep tabs on potential changes and challenges and more easily predict what could happen.

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