Analysis: Who Will be the First to Crack?

Michael Schumacher knows more than any driver how to withstand the pressure of a knife-edge title battle.

Ferrari's Formula One ace has been there, seen it and done it all before - fighting Damon Hill, Jacques Villeneuve and Mika Hakkinen in dramatic duels before Ferrari acquired the winning habit.

So when the German tries to do it all again at Indianapolis on Sunday, with a record sixth Championship within his grasp, he will know what to expect. Form would suggest that, of the three title contenders, the Red Baron will be the toughest nut to crack.

A favourite Schumacher expression, used already this season after a nightmarish start, is "when the going gets tough, the tough get going."

He has won more races, scored more points and taken more titles than any F1 driver alive. And he is still plainly enjoying his job, the biggest burden of all swept away with the 2000 title that gave Ferrari their first drivers' title in 21 years.

"He is better equipped to deal with the pressure than any of his come-lately rivals because he's been there and done that, whatever it is," former commentator Murray Walker wrote recently. "He's got the right car and the right back-up, he's tough and ruthless and he really wants that record sixth Championship."

Error Prone

But maybe there is an alternative script.

This season has been Schumacher's most error-prone and troubled in years and it is just possible that this time he will be first to blink. Maybe, as Niki Lauda suggested a few races back, Schumacher has just won too much.

The rise of Williams, McLaren and young lions like Kimi Raikkonen and Spaniard Fernando Alonso has made his task harder. Time does not stand still and Schumacher, who will be 35 before the start of next season, is running out of it.

In Colombian Juan Pablo Montoya, the Williams driver who lurks three points behind Schumacher with just Japan remaining after 'The Brickyard', he has a hungry rival. Montoya won both the Formula 3000 and CART titles, as well as the Indy 500, and knows a bit about big occasions.

He is not a man to be intimidated.

The key question could be whether the stress of being so close to a record sixth title proves more of a burden than that of being within sight of a precious first. And then there is McLaren's Raikkonen. Seven points behind, the 23-year-old 'Iceman' can go flat out knowing that as a long-shot he has nothing to lose.

If he wins he has a hope of the title, if he loses everyone will still praise his fantastic season. The Finn also knows that he will have other chances long after Schumacher has departed to spend more time with his family.

Final Showdown

The odds are that the title will go down to the wire in Japan on October 12, possibly with all three still in contention. Then it could really be winner takes all and Schumacher, despite winning far more races than his rivals cannot be sure of anything.

Every driver's career has those 'What If?' moments and Schumacher will not want to end the season by adding more to his collection. Many people have wondered how the Formula One records might have looked had Brazilian Ayrton Senna not died at Imola in 1994 or had Schumacher not broken his leg at Silverstone in 1999.

Maybe Senna would have been first to six titles. Maybe Schumacher would have got there by now too.

Ferrari fans could yet be left wondering what might have been this year had Schumacher not collided with Jarno Trulli's Renault in Malaysia, skidded off in Brazil or picked up a puncture at Hockenheim.

What if Montoya, and not Schumacher, had flown into the gravel at the Nurburgring after they collided as the Colombian muscled past?

How might the season have unfolded had Michelin's front tyres been questioned before the 13th race of the Championship?

And what surprises could still be in store in this most unpredictable of Championships?