No one in their right mind would put a penny on a Renault-engined car winning the season-opening Australian Grand Prix.
Come to mention it, even putting money down on one being a classified finisher there would be tremendously foolhardy, the equivalent of backing a 500-1 shot for the Grand National because you like the name. So why exactly was there so much positivity from Lotus both publicly and in private after Saturday's final day of the first of two pre-season tests in Bahrain?
Given the discontented grumblings emerging from the Red Bull, Toro Rosso and Caterham garages, it would be easy to jump to the conclusion that this was just the Enstone squad brazening it out and playing the political game. But that doesn't quite ring true.
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Edd Straw is Editor-in-Chief of Autosport, overseeing both print and digital versions of the brand. Edd has worked for Autosport since joining as a junior reporter in 2002. He became Editor in November 2014, having previously worked as National Editor, News Editor and Grand Prix Editor.
Originally from Guernsey in the Channel Islands, he joined Autosport shortly after graduating from university. He went on to cover a wide range of categories from club motorsport to the World Touring Car Championship and Le Mans to Formula 3 before switching to F1 full-time at the 2008 French Grand Prix. He continues to cover a range of international events in his position as Editor-in-Chief.
In his spare time, he was formerly a club racer whose abilities did not match his enthusiasm in a variety of categories.