No one in their right mind would put a penny on a Renault-engined car winning the season-opening Australian Grand Prix.
Come to mention it, even putting money down on one being a classified finisher there would be tremendously foolhardy, the equivalent of backing a 500-1 shot for the Grand National because you like the name. So why exactly was there so much positivity from Lotus both publicly and in private after Saturday's final day of the first of two pre-season tests in Bahrain?
Given the discontented grumblings emerging from the Red Bull, Toro Rosso and Caterham garages, it would be easy to jump to the conclusion that this was just the Enstone squad brazening it out and playing the political game. But that doesn't quite ring true.