It's human nature to grasp for the worst-case scenario. By Formula 1 standards, Red Bull team principal Christian Horner's assertion that half of the field might not make the finish of the season-opening Australian Grand Prix is a conservative one.
With uncertainty surrounding both the performance and reliability of the new 1.6-litre turbocharged engines, there are plenty willing to make far more dramatic predictions.
Some anticipate that the 22-car grid might make the early Renault turbos of 1977/1978 (four finishes in 18 starts) seem dependable by comparison.
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Edd Straw is Editor-in-Chief of Autosport, overseeing both print and digital versions of the brand. Edd has worked for Autosport since joining as a junior reporter in 2002. He became Editor in November 2014, having previously worked as National Editor, News Editor and Grand Prix Editor.
Originally from Guernsey in the Channel Islands, he joined Autosport shortly after graduating from university. He went on to cover a wide range of categories from club motorsport to the World Touring Car Championship and Le Mans to Formula 3 before switching to F1 full-time at the 2008 French Grand Prix. He continues to cover a range of international events in his position as Editor-in-Chief.
In his spare time, he was formerly a club racer whose abilities did not match his enthusiasm in a variety of categories.