With five races to go, Jenson Button only needs solid results to seal the title. But clearly he's got to do better than the 11 points he has taken since winning the Turkish Grand Prix three months ago.
Now, I've never been in JB's position, but pressure does have an effect on performance. Jenson will inevitably deny publicly any negative effects, but if you just look at his results relative to Rubens Barrichello, you can see a shift.
The minute you start thinking about it rather than simply doing it, you tighten up and can lose a bit of performance. One area that I wasn't so strong in was qualifying, and there was a time when I was overanalysing rather than focusing on driving. That's something Jenson needs to beware of.
If I were in Jenson's position, I would rewatch the first seven grands prix of the year. He won six of them and his performances were Schumacheresque. He has all the skills he needs; he just has to relax and enjoy it and keep reminding himself of how he drove in the first part of the year. He doesn't need 10 points from every race - he's already won more than Lewis Hamilton did on his way to the championship.
Even with the problems Brawn are having with the car being less dominant, he can still get the points he needs early enough to avoid risking a heart attack going into the Abu Dhabi finale.
As for who is his main rival, it's impossible to say. Sebastian Vettel was on the move around Silverstone, then Mark Webber came to the fore, and in the last few races Rubens has come right back into it. It's looking more and more like it will go down to the wire. I have no idea how to call it - but it's great for the fans.
What an amazing story for Giancarlo Fisichella. After 224 starts, he gets to finish his grand prix career in a race-winning Ferrari. And he makes his debut for the Scuderia in the Italian GP. That's fantasy F1 for a 36-year-old who seemed to be seeing out his time at the top level.
It's a great chance for him and it will be interesting to see how he handles it. During his career he has tended to be very good at delivering unexpected results when he's the underdog, but when things have looked better - such as when he was at Renault alongside Fernando Alonso - he hasn't done so well.
But he's a logical choice. Luca Badoer was on a hiding to nothing, having been out of competition for so long. He actually did a much better job at Spa, but even half a second off is way off the back in modern F1. Giancarlo is a proven performer who is race sharp, and should be in a position to take good points in the next five races.
High hopes for Force India
There's every reason for Force India to be confident heading to Monza after that amazing pole position and second place in the Belgian Grand Prix.
It's another step in terms of wing setting, as Monza is easily the lowest-downforce track on the calendar. But the Force India, which has the powerful Mercedes engine, is always strong in a straight line, which should be even more of an advantage on the long straights of Monza, even without KERS. Look at sector one at Spa: Red Bull was two or three tenths of a second down, and that's most likely down to top speed.
So expect the Force India to be right in there with a strong shot at points. This scenario, of a privateer team showing this kind of form, would never have happened a few years ago. It's all part of what the FIA is trying to do by freezing the engines and limiting the scope of aerodynamic development and it means that the field has become more competitive than ever before.
All eyes will be on Adrian Sutil. He's had praise in the past for some strong drives, but you still have to question whether he's really in that elite group of drivers. This is Sutil's big chance to prove himself.
As for what the biggest surprise will be at Monza - don't ask me! It's been one of those seasons where all you can be sure of is that the competitive order won't stay the same from one race to the next.
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