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Analysis: Why Ferrari starts 2016 Formula 1 season 'afraid'

Ferrari exceeded even its own expectations in the 2015 Formula 1 season, winning three grands prix after setting itself the target of two

On that basis, Ferrari should improve this season and give Mercedes a closer run for its money, right? There are many who will be hoping that is the case.

But unlike the prelude to last season, to date there have been no statements of intent from Ferrari. President Sergio Marchionne and team principal Maurizio Arrivabene are playing their cards very closely to their chests.

You sense Ferrari knows that after being on the receiving end of overwhelming Mercedes dominance the past two years it is within touching distance of making a grab for the German manufacturer's coat-tails and hauling it in.

You only have to listen to the remarks of Marchionne and Arrivabene to realise there is perhaps a sense of anxiety within Maranello.

With a concerted effort it can push Mercedes to the wire this year. As encouraging as last year was, resting on laurels now would squander those gains.

"If I was to give a tip to myself and the team colleagues, it is to be extremely afraid of their rivals," said Marchionne at Christmas.

"Let's try from now until March to suffer and work very hard because until we will see Mercedes during the test phase in February and then later on, we cannot be calm.

"We have to make the most of this time and the last thing we can do is relax, in spite of the wins and in spite of the podiums."

For Arrivabene that anxiety would appear to be even more acute, and with good reason as it is eight years now since Ferrari last won a constructors' championship, and nine since one of its men last claimed the drivers' crown.

Could 2016 again be Ferrari's year?

"We're working very hard, we're very tense, we're terrified because we're afraid of the future, so we're not relaxed," said Arrivabene.

"We were second [in 2015], but we have to ask ourselves what those in first are going to do, especially considering they dominated last season.

"This positive fear is good because it stems from the willingness and excitement of doing new things.

"In terms of our rivals, Red Bull, Williams, no one can be underestimated and certainly they could be dangerous. McLaren may be a competitor as well."

All eyes will, of course, again be on Sebastian Vettel as it was the four-time champion who led Ferrari out of the mire of its winless 2014 campaign - the team's first season without a victory since 1993.

Marchionne has made clear he is expecting Kimi Raikkonen to have a "phenomenal" year this season after witnessing a different driver over the second half of last season. Now there's pressure for you.

Certainly if Raikkonen can at least haul himself closer to Vettel on a Saturday afternoon, as qualifying continues to be his Achilles heel, then the duo can apply their own pressure on Mercedes pair Lewis Hamilton and Nico Rosberg.

Going into this season Vettel knows Mercedes will continue to be the team to beat, but there is confidence he can make further inroads into their dominance.

"The reason Mercedes did so well is not only due to the power unit, but a combination of things," said Vettel.

"It was a great car and they were able to improve it significantly from before.

"I don't think it is worth talking about the engine because we know it is strong and we expect them to keep going.

"Anyone who wants to challenge them needs to make bigger steps, and again that's our target.

"There are lots of things we are looking into to try and come out with a stronger car.

"Obviously, I don't know what is happening behind other doors, but I know what is happening at Maranello, and it looks very promising."

Inside Mercedes the team has its own concerns about Ferrari, highlighted only recently by Andy Cowell, managing director of the team's AMG High Performance Powertrains department.

And if the words of Williams technical director Pat Symonds are anything to go by with regard to the power unit, Cowell has every reason to be worried.

"I honestly don't believe there's any difference between the Ferrari engine and the customer Mercedes engine, I really don't," said Symonds, whose team is powered by Mercedes.

"I'm not sure about heat dissipation and things like that, we don't analyse it on that level, but every calculation we do shows them to be on a par, in terms of power."

If true, and Ferrari again makes the gains with the PU that it did in the build up to last season, internal anxiety may yet lead to long-overdue glory.

The current issue of Autosport magazine - available online and in shops now - contains an in-depth analysis of where Ferrari needs to make gains to overcome Mercedes this season

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