Will Vettel, Alonso and Kvyat's 2015 F1 team moves pay off?

The Formula 1 driver market was rocked by news on Saturday morning that Sebastian Vettel will leave Red Bull at the end of the season.

With the four-time world champion on his way to Ferrari, Daniil Kvyat replacing him at Red Bull, and Fernando Alonso's future yet to be determined, AUTOSPORT's team of journalists in the F1 paddock assess the silly season.

1) IS SEBASTIAN VETTEL WISE TO TURN HIS BACK ON RED BULL FOR FERRARI?

Edd Straw (@eddstrawF1): When Michael Schumacher left Benetton for Ferrari for 1996, he could see the writing on the wall. While Benetton's success was transient, Ferrari had the potential for sustained glory.

Perhaps that's what Vettel sees at Red Bull with Adrian Newey easing into a role away from the F1 frontline? Or maybe he just needs to be revitalised by a new environment and a new challenge?

It's often overlooked that this year's Ferrari is pretty good chassis and aero-wise, and this suggests that under technical director James Allison things are going in the right direction.

Red Bull only learned Vettel was leaving on Friday

A new broom is brushing through Maranello, wielded jointly by Sergio Marchionne and Marco Mattiacci. Vettel has clearly been sold on the idea that he can play the Schumacher role with his superiors cast as Luca di Montezemolo and Jean Todt of 20 years ago.

It's not a foregone conclusion it will work, but let's call it a calculated risk for Vettel.

Jonathan Noble (@NobleF1): Perhaps it was events outside of Vettel's control that proved the trigger point for fast-tracking a move to Ferrari that had always been on the cards.

With changes in the technical structure at Red Bull in the wake of Adrian Newey's decision to step back, it was clear that things were never going to be the same.

And having had a tough time from Daniel Ricciardo this season, Vettel will have faced big questions about whether or not he could motivate himself to dig really deep to get on top of his Australian team-mate in 2015.

Vettel had always been open to a future at Ferrari, perhaps reminded of the superstar status that compatriot Michael Schumacher achieved by turning fortunes around at Maranello.

Under Marco Mattiacci, Ferrari is ready to make changes: and his no-nonsense approach that pushed Fernando Alonso away shows he means business. Now Vettel's career has got back the spark he wanted.

Ben Anderson (@BenAndersonAuto): I see this scenario as similar to the one that faced Lewis Hamilton when he left McLaren for Mercedes at the end of 2012. Hamilton had spent his entire career up to that point with one team. He needed a fresh environment.

Much has changed inside Red Bull this season, and Vettel - who has enjoyed unprecedented success since joining in 2009 - has surely sensed the tide shifting. Adrian Newey is reining back his involvement and Vettel's long-time Red Bull race engineer Guillaume 'Rocky' Rocquelin is also taking up a new role within the team at the end of this season.

Vettel: Poor 2014 not a factor in team switch

What goes up must come down eventually, and like a great rock band that has sold out stadium after stadium, eventually you will go stale together.

Moving to Ferrari would give Vettel the chance counter those harshest of critics who say he 'lucked in' to his four world titles with the best team. If he can help make Ferrari winners again, he will prove once and for all that he is one of the sport's all-time great drivers.

2) DO YOU THINK DANIIL KVYAT IS READY TO FILL VETTEL'S SHOES AT RED BULL?

Edd Straw: It's a big ask for the 20-year-old to step up to Red Bull in what will be only his second F1 season, but motorsport rewards those who back young drivers with ability.

Red Bull has all the data it needs on Kvyat, Vergne, Ricciardo and Vettel to know how they all compare. The fact that he is being promoted means that Kvyat stacks up well enough to do the job alongside Ricciardo next year.

He can't fill Vettel's shoes insofar as he's a second-year driver replacing a quadruple world champion, but it's a role Kvyat will grow into longer-term.

Jonathan Noble: Kvyat has showed enough signs of promise for Red Bull to be convinced he can handle life at its top team.

Of course his lack of experience and the fact he has not yet finished on a podium leaves some questioning whether he has the credentials to replace a four-time champion.

But those are the exact same doubts that people had about Daniel Ricciardo, and look what he has done at Red Bull this year.

For a rookie, Kvyat has been brilliant in 2014. There have been mistakes, of course - and it may take another year to eradicate them completely - but it is ultimately speed that Red Bull is after: and the Russian youngster has that in spades.

Ben Anderson: Kvyat won't have to fill Vettel's shoes, because Red Bull has Daniel Ricciardo to do that job.

The Australian has been arguably the star of this season since stepping up from Toro Rosso to become Vettel's team-mate. Ricciardo has got the better of a four-time world champion, so his bosses will feel they have already nurtured a ready-made Vettel replacement.

Kvyat's job will be to fill Ricciardo's shoes and keep the perma-grinning, honey badger lover on his toes. Kvyat has been excellent during the course of his first season in Formula 1 - outqualifying Jean-Eric Vergne more often than not - and I think he was always destined for promotion to Red Bull, it has just come earlier than expected.

3) IF FERNANDO ALONSO IS OFF TO McLAREN, CAN THAT PARTNERSHIP WORK SECOND TIME AROUND AFTER THEIR DISASTROUS 2007 SEASON TOGETHER?

Edd Straw: Make no mistake, this would be a marriage of convenience. Alonso needed a way out of Ferrari and a team with a realistic chance of emerging as a title contender, while McLaren needed a gold standard driver.

Driven by pragmatism on both sides, the chances of this working are far higher than they might have seemed a few years ago. Much will be decided by how strong the McLaren-Honda package is.

If it's competitive, any cracks will be papered over, driver and team will be happy and success will flow. But if the going gets tough, then things could go seriously wrong.

Correctly harnessed, Alonso's determination to become a triple world champion could prove McLaren's trump card.

Jonathan Noble: It's not done yet, but all the indications are that Alonso and McLaren are working towards a deal for 2015.

Such a scenario would have appeared improbable several years ago, but F1 can be a funny old world at times; and in periods of need such historical issues can always be cast to one side.

Alonso will return to McLaren a wiser man than in 2007; and perhaps slightly less tempestuous with the knowledge that this will almost certainly be his last chance to win the title.

The key to it will be how hands off Ron Dennis can be with Alonso: if he gets too involved in trying to manage him then that could open up trouble if things are not going so well on track during Honda's first year back in F1.

But in racing director Eric Boullier, McLaren will have someone who can perhaps act as a decent buffer when troubles arise.

Ben Anderson: On the face of it, this would seem like two bitterly divorced lovers trying desperately to reconcile after years apart. Maybe their memories have faded over time; perhaps the wounds caused by that season have healed?

The problems first time around seemed to stem from a difficult relationship between Alonso and Ron Dennis. Perhaps the key to it succeeding second time around will be whether the frost in that relationship has thawed? Perhaps it won't matter.

Alonso does not appear to have any other viable options to remain in F1 next season. His relationship with Ferrari is broken beyond repair; Red Bull doesn't want or need him; and Mercedes is full up for next season.

That leaves McLaren as the best option that doesn't involve Alonso sitting at home in 2015.